What population data is most meaningful?

Release of ABS National, State and Territory population data

Yesterday, the ABS released National, State and Territory population data for the quarter ended March 2025.

These data releases provide much more useful and valuable data than just the size and growth rate measures we tend to report on. These measures are also unfortunately prioritised as indicators of economic performance.

Given changing population dynamics and the demographic reality of slowing global population growth, these measures will soon be meaningless.

If we are going to proactively and effectively plan for, and, potentially, shape, our future populations then a much greater understanding of demographic change and its drivers is required.

While population growth rates are going to slow locally and globally, population age structures will change at a faster rate.

In Tasmania, interstate migration has the greatest long term impact on demographic change given the volume of flows in and out of the state by age group.

This chart shows the average flow of interstate migration arrivals and departures for Tasmania by five year age group since 2022 (post-pandemic).

· average arrivals to the state was 13,240 people per annum

· average departures from the state was 15,967 per annum

· average net loss was 2,730 people per annum

· the largest cohort arriving in the state was those aged 25 to 29 years, followed by 20 to 24 and 30 to 34

· the largest cohort leaving the state was those aged 25 to 29 years, followed by 30 to 34 and 20 to 24

· the largest net loss was for the age group aged 30 to 34 years (the prime reproductive age group), followed by 25 to 29 and then equally by 15 to 19 and 20 to 24

· net losses occurred for age groups 0 to 44 and 70 or older

· net gains were recorded for 45-to-69-year age groups

· the flows in and out were considerably smaller for older ages (a third of arrivals, and a fifth of departures compared with those aged 20 to 34)

The interdependencies between the components of population change is driving increasing complexity and creating challenging conditions to plan for without a much deeper understanding of their dynamics.

To understand the WHAT and the WHY, consider my Understanding Population Dynamics one day PL course on 12 December, 2025.

More information here: www.lisadenny.com.au

Register here