People's ages need to be part of the planning process for Tasmania's future liveability
Talking Point, The Mercury, 3 October, 2024
Planning for the current and future liveability of a place requires deep understanding of its population age structure - the distribution of its community by age and sex - and projected change over time.
Just as an individual’s, couple’s or family’s needs change over time, so too does their concept of liveability.
The characteristics of a place that support wellbeing and quality of life - collectively termed the ‘liveability’ of a place - are significant in attracting and retaining people in communities.
As interstate and international migration plays a larger role in population change in Tasmania, and the shape of population age structures within the state, perceived and actual liveability will become even more important for communities and their future sustainability.
Population age structures are visual representations of a community and are often given names that reflect their shape. These shapes, and how they change over time, can also reflect the broader needs of the population and help inform policy development in terms of investment in services, infrastructure, amenities and other liveability qualities, as well as land use planning.
Within Southern Tasmania, seven different types of population age structures are projected to evolve over the next 15 years, based on the recent patterns of population change for their area - the inverse coffin, middle-aged spread, pyramid, column, apple-core, coffin and the tornado.
The further away from services, employment and quality education that a Local Government Area (LGA) is, and the older the population, the more volatile the age structure and the more vulnerable the community is to poor liveability factors.
The Committee for Greater Hobart is facilitating discussion about the future liveability of the Southern Tasmanian region to provide input into the Southern Tasmanian Regional Land Use Strategy (STRLUS), which is currently being reviewed. I will be providing a demographic lens to help inform the discussion at the Committee’s Liveability Forum on the 15th of October, 2024.
While the Southern Tasmania region is projected to grow by 32,000 people over the next 15 years at an average rate of 0.72 per cent per annum, almost half (45%) of this growth will be in the population aged between 65 and 84 years of age, and a quarter (25%) in the population aged 85 or older.
By 2038, it is projected that almost one quarter (24.8%) of the Southern Tasmanian region population will be aged 65 or older. In comparison, the number of children living in Southern Tasmania will increase by 886 over the 15 years (2.8%) to account for 15% of the population and the number of working age Tasmanians (15- to 64-year-olds) will increase by 27% to represent 60% of the population. However, projected population change differs considerably for each of the 12 LGAs that make up Southern Tasmania.
Based on the age structure, which reflects stages of life, a population will have different needs in terms of services, infrastructure and amenities. The factors that both determine, and contribute to, liveability will differ by LGA. These population age structures need to be planned for in terms of housing, education, health services, transport, recreation and other liveability factors that attract, retain or deter people from the respective communities.
While planning for population change has traditionally focused on critical infrastructure planning for more people, liveability factors across the lifespan now need to be embedded in the planning process as population growth slows.
If the needs of the community within these populations are not met through appropriate planning and provisions, then it is not likely that the projected population age structures will eventuate.
On the other hand, proactive strategic planning can help projected population age structures to become more favourable shapes, supporting more sustainable communities and enhancing the liveability aspects for the region and the LGAs within it.
