History continues to repeat itself in Tasmania
Solving ‘demographic problems’ with ‘demographic solutions’ don’t - and won’t - work
Did you know that since 1972 Tasmania has recorded five periods of consecutive annual net interstate migration gains with each period approximately 3.8 years in duration, while it has recorded five periods of consecutive net interstate migration annual losses with each period approximately 6.6 years in duration? The average annual loss per period was 1,654 people while the average annual gain per period was 1,220 people.
The most recent period of consecutive net interstate migration losses is the three years from 2022 to 2024 with an average net loss of 2,726 people per year. It is unlikely that this period of consecutive annual interstate migration losses will end soon given the current environment influencing demographic change in Tasmania. If historical averages are anything to go by, there is another 3.6 years of losses to expect.
This InSummary provides an insight into interstate migration for Tasmania following the ABS National, State and Territory Population data released yesterday for the quarter ended December 2024. This release incorporates a revised methodology for estimating interstate migration back to September 2021 following the identification of a significant undercount in for Tasmania post the ABS 2021 Census of Population Housing and the implausibly high interstate migration figures during 2021 and 2022 resulting from large address changes with Medicare during the mass-vaccination roll out associated with the COVID-19 pandemic (I have written about this previously here and here).
Why is interstate migration so important for Tasmania?
Since 2015, the average number of people moving to Tasmania has been around 14,794 each year, while the average number of people leaving Tasmania was around 14,166 per year, resulting in an average net gain of 629 people for Tasmania.
For the last three years during the most recent consecutive period of annual net interstate migration losses from 2022 to 2024, around 13,232 people arrived in Tasmania each year from interstate, while around 15,958 people left the state each year, resulting in an average net loss of 2,726 people each year.
While the difference between arrivals and departures to and from Tasmania may be relatively small and either positive or negative, the flows to and from the state are substantially greater. These large flows have a correspondingly large impact on the shape of Tasmania’s population age structure and future demographic development potential (i.e. natural increase or decline).
In comparison, net overseas migration has always been positive and has an average annual net gain of around 2,852 (noting that 2020 and 2021 were impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic) for the last 10 years (3,303 per annum excluding 2020 and 2021),
However, overseas migration flows to and from Tasmania are considerably smaller that interstate migration flows, despite the net gain offsetting interstate migration losses. Excluding 2020 and 2021, annual overseas migration arrivals to Tasmania were around 5,727 people per annum since 2015 while overseas migration departures from Tasmania were around 2,524 per annum.
Why does this matter?
While the public discourse around Tasmania’s population focusses on the number of people – i.e. the size and growth rate of the population, it is actually the shape of the population age structure – the composition of the population by age and sex - that determines the future demographic development (endogenous growth or decline) – the balance between old and young, births and deaths – of the state.
It is the age profile of migrants - both interstate and overseas migrants – to and from Tasmania that influence the shape of Tasmania’s population age structure in addition to the birth and death rates. However, as the volume of interstate migration inflows is 2.3 times as large as overseas migration inflows and that outward interstate migration flows are 6.3 times larger than outward overseas migration flows for the current consecutive period, the impact on the population age structure by interstate migration is much larger, particularly when the age profile of inward and outward migrants is considered.
The profile of these inward and outward migrant flows create an uneven, top heavy age structure, combined with an ever declining Total Fertility Rate (which I have previously written about here and here), as per the below chart. This uneven, ever changing population age structure makes it challenging, but definitely not impossible, for policy and planning purposes.
Since 1997, Tasmania has consistently recorded an annual net interstate migration loss of 15- to 24-year-olds. Interstate migration for all other age groups is dependent upon Tasmania’s relative performance with other states and territories on a range of issues, for example employment, education, economic, housing, lifestyle and access to services, depending on where people are in the life cycle and personal standpoints.
For the current consecutive period from 2022 to 2024, all age groups from 0-4 to 40-44 years and 70-74 and 75+ recorded an average net interstate loss (as per the thicker red line in the below chart) while the age groups 45-49 to 65-69 years recorded net interstate gains. This has the effect of increasing Tasmania’s rate of population ageing – effectively making Tasmania’s population older, faster. Additionally, the significantly larger loss of 30- to 34-year-olds – the age range at which most women have their first child – impact on future demographic reproduction, further contributing to Tasmania’s rate of ageing and making Tasmania’s age structure even more top heavy as there are less women of reproductive age residing in Tasmania (I published about this in the international Journal of Population Research here).
While overseas migration sets off some of these losses in these young adult age groups, the profile of overseas migrants and interstate migrants is markedly different, with a large proportion of overseas migrants residing in Australia on temporary visas as students, working holidaymakers or skilled migrants for example. While some overseas-born temporary migrants may now be captured in interstate movements migration after their arrival in Australia given the ABS’s welcomed revised methodology for interstate migration, the impact on net interstate migration for Tasmania is not considerable given the relatively smaller numbers.
InSummary
I have been providing research and policy advice services to the Tasmanian Government since 2012 (initially the TDR Board) and periodically since then (see here for the Background Issues Paper commissioned as part of the Government’s Population Growth Strategy, here for the transcript of the The Inglis-Clark Dension Debate in 2014 with then Premier Will Hodgman and the late, great, Graeme Hugo AO (or here if you are super keen to watch it), as well as a range of other publications reports and submissions on my website here).
To say that I am frustrated and disappointed that history continues to repeat itself in Tasmania is an understatement. We are once again in the midst of an election campaign and I wonder whether any of the political parties’ leaders (or independents who may support the forming of a government post 19 July 2025) have the courage and tenacity to have an open mind (prepared to challenge assumptions), open heart (to be vulnerable and ready hear one another) and open will (to let go of pre-set goals and agenda and see other possibilities) to rethink the State’s approaches to our demographic challenges as well as capture the opportunities?
I say this at we are at a critical juncture and need to progress with a sense of purpose. It is essential that past failures to anticipate and plan for demographic change are not repeated. The policy responses to demographic challenges have been to find ‘demographic solutions’ to ‘demographic problems’, i.e. to ‘grow our way out of it’. However, previous ‘demographic solutions’ approaches such as immigration programs or baby bonuses (or as announced yesterday a subsidy for IVF treatments) to perceived ‘demographic problems’ like population ageing or projected decline, are not working because they fail to address the complexity of the ‘problem/s’ and the underlying structural drivers of demographic change they aim to influence.
In fact, the diverse demographic patterns within Tasmania are the legacy of decisions of the past.
By better understanding the underlying causes of demographic change, it is possible to better prepare and adapt for the demographic future. If it is possible to predict demographic futures confidently as a result of more comprehensive understanding, then it will also be possible to predict associated consequences. With evidence-based, informed responses, it may also be possible to turn a demographic headwind into a tailwind.
Rethinking Demographic Change Professional Learning Series
For those interested in better understanding population dynamics, you may be interested in one or more of my courses in the Rethinking Demographic Change Professional Learning Series.
1) Decision-making and demographic change using a systems thinking framework - next course 21 and 22 August 2025 in Hobart
2) Understanding population dynamics (course outline soon to be released) - first course to be 12 September 2025 in Hobart
3) Using population projections for policy and planning purposes (course outline to be released in late 2025) - courses start in late 2025