Back to 'normal'? Population change in Tasmania

An analysis of Regional Internal Migration Estimates for Tasmania

The National, State and Territory population data released by the ABS this week suggests that Tasmania’s population growth rate has ‘stabilised’ at around 0.4% per annum based on the last three quarters of population change to March 2024.  

While overseas migration has prevented Tasmania’s population from entering decline, it is a ‘stop gap measure’ in the short term due to the mostly temporary nature of overseas migration for Tasmania. It is interstate migration as well as internal migration within Tasmania which has the greatest impact on the sustainability of Tasmania’s population over the long term, and therefore also its economic and social sustainability and prosperity.   

The volume (sum of flows in and out) of interstate migration is around three times greater than the volume of overseas migration for Tasmania. Furthermore, the age and sex profiles of interstate migrants and overseas migrants differ considerably and have a sizeable impact on the State’s demographic development potential over the longer term.

Closer analysis of interstate migration arrivals and departures and the rolling quarter-on-quarter average reveals that the number of arrivals to the state are stabilising and that the departures are starting to decline, slowly. Even so, the net interstate migration loss remains substantial. While 12,634 people moved to Tasmania from interstate in the year to March 2024, 15,494 left to live elsewhere in Australia – a net loss of 2,860 people.

This InSummary further analyses interstate and internal migration for Greater Hobart and the Rest of Tasmania by age.